Base rates mauboussin

There are three things to consider in order to make an effective prediction: the base rate, the individual case, and how to weight the two. There are three things to consider in order to make an effective prediction: the base rate, the individual case, and how to weight the two. Tagged: Insensitivity to base rates, Michael Mauboussin Michael Mauboussin: The ability to calibrate the total addressable market (TAM) is a major part of anticipating value creation. Finally, we discuss the usefulness of appealing to base rates as a reality check for optimistic estimates of TAM and growth rates.

Fragrance from the designer house of Mauboussin; An eau de parfum for women; A strong scent. Base notes of Sandalwood, Amber, Caramel; 100 ml bottle. Using base rates as the initial estimate has been popularised in recent years by Philip Tetlock (“Superforecasting”) and Michael Mauboussin (“The Success  Mauboussin: Talk about the inside vs outside view, and base rates… Kahneman: Was involved in writing a textbook on decision-making without math for a high  19 Jan 2018 Base rates and reference classes are so important to Mauboussin because good decisions come from good odds. “To me, a lot of investing  12 Feb 2018 Michael Mauboussin, BlueMountain Capital Management: My sense is that there has been a A simple example is the use of base rates.

6 Apr 2012 So an enlightened manager would prefer on-base percentage to batting and can be affected by changes in interest rates, in exchange rates, 

4 Dec 2016 What I Learned After Reading Michael Mauboussin's Base Rate Book sufficient weight on the rates of past occurrences (the “outside view”).”. 30 Sep 2016 This book is the first comprehensive repository for base rates of corporate results. It examines sales growth, gross profitability, operating  3 Oct 2016 This book is the first comprehensive repository for base rates of corporate results. It examines sales growth, gross profitability, operating  18 Oct 2016 Mauboussin has written a (small) book on base rates. It's very good and free. It describes the what, why and how of using base rates to inform  20 Dec 2017 I have asked Michael Mauboussin to ensure that we are Michael J. Mauboussin. Director of inconsistent discount rates when we make short- term versus and appeal to the reference class, or base rate. But research in 

4 Dec 2016 What I Learned After Reading Michael Mauboussin's Base Rate Book sufficient weight on the rates of past occurrences (the “outside view”).”.

Mauboussin has written a (small) book on base rates. It's very good and free. It describes the what, why and how of using base rates to inform your decision making in the first 26 pages or so. Then he looks at various base rates of various metrics such as growth, return on investments, and price increases etc. The Base Rate Book: Integrating the Past to Better Anticipate the Future Credit Suisse’s Global Financial Strategies team has published a new report, “The Base Rate Book.” Successful active investing requires a forecast that is different than what the market is discounting. Executives and investors commonly rely on their own experience and information in making forecasts…

So when combined with base rates, you'd say there is a 45% chance of this happening. But variable X, Y, Z change the percentage in my view by 10% to 55%. My preference would be to get more detailed on the base rate.

2 Jun 2015 Authors. Michael J. Mauboussin michael.mauboussin@credit-suisse.com We need to look beyond base rates, as informative as they are, to  24 May 2004 This leads to a very basic question: how do you implement these a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest . 6 Apr 2012 So an enlightened manager would prefer on-base percentage to batting and can be affected by changes in interest rates, in exchange rates,  16 Nov 2012 Michael Mauboussin is Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason For example , the A's recognized that on-base percentage is a more  September 26, 2016. The Base Rate Book 7. The average estimated return for the focal project was almost 30 percent, while the average for the comparable projects was close to 20 percent. Every subject wrote a rate of return for the focal project that was equal to or higher than the comparable projects.

26 Sep 2016 This book is the first comprehensive repository for base rates of corporate Source: Michael J. Mauboussin, The Success Equation: Untangling 

16 Nov 2012 Michael Mauboussin is Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason For example , the A's recognized that on-base percentage is a more  September 26, 2016. The Base Rate Book 7. The average estimated return for the focal project was almost 30 percent, while the average for the comparable projects was close to 20 percent. Every subject wrote a rate of return for the focal project that was equal to or higher than the comparable projects. Michael Mauboussin: The Base Rate Book – Integrating The Past To Better Anticipate The Future “People who have information about an individual case rarely feel the need to know the statistics of the class to which the case belongs.” I recently finished reading the Base Rate. It was authored by Michael Mauboussin while he was at Credit Suisse. Anyone can read it in its PDF format here. While the book is written for investors…

We refine the base rates by separating earnings announcements from non- earnings announcements and by introducing factors including momentum, valuation,  To help investors anticipate such revisions, Rappaport and Mauboussin creation from the basic economic forces that shape a company's performance to the as "investors do not earn superior rates of return on stocks that are priced fully to  A formal definition: Michael Mauboussin, in “ The Success Equation” ( TSE review + notes), defines the base rate with the following example: “If 85% of the taxicabs